Page 83 - Msingi Afrika Magazine Issue 13

Innovate Afrika

people left to use 8.8% of the crude MMb/y in 2050. Yes that is
oil they produced, which was also now in the realm of billions of
mismanaged. barrels per day.
By exporting the bulk of their oil, 3. Nigeria’s daily export is growing
these nations starve their indus- from 1.79 MMb/d in 2016 with
tries, especially their manufacturing 0% growth from the starting
sector. These are the reasons for 3.28 bbl/d per 1000 people to
thinking. Thought must be put to 880,000 bbl/d.
mind as to what needs to happen. 4. At the direst situation, Nigeria
is expected to go from 1.65
From Thought To Action MMb/d exports in 2016 to
Energy Security Policy is the crown- -9.35 MMb/d exports with a
ing factor in securing a socio-eco- 5.6% growth rate on a starting
nomically beneficial economy for 3.98 MMb/d per 1000 people.
Nigeria and Nigerians. But getting Yes, that -9.35 MMb/d means
there requires steps along the way. Nigeria will begin importing oil
at this rate.
Step One: Reduction in Oil Expor-
tation Let us interpret what we just point-
ed out. Nigeria is in terminal trou-
In the paper, Dr. Igbokoyi strategi- ble. There, it’s over. We can pack it
cally presented information on the up and call it a day. We will try again
direction Nigeria is heading using in the next life.
a comparative method primarily But no, let us explore the numbers
The ‘burn rate’ of a company is against China. Values were present- more to find out how step one really
the rate at which the company is ed with the assumption that affects us.
spending their cash reserves. Trans- 1. Nigeria’s energy consumption rate
pose that statistic to Nigeria’s main
energy source reserve, crude oil, would not grow, and Mathematically speaking however,
2. Energy consumption growth rate
what those numbers mean is this:
and we see that Nigeria’s burn rate of 5.6% (annual value for China). 1. First there are 365 days in a
is fast-tracking the country to being year meaning those 220, 550,
an oil importer rather than exporter, Nature has shown that unless man 270, and 4290 numbers are in
leading to further economic ruin.
physically interferes, population fact 0.6, 1.5, 0.74, and 11.75
growth will naturally occur. Subject- (or -11.75, meaning we are still
It is a simple connection: Nigeria ing Nigeria to 2.4 MMb/d produc- lacking) MMb/d.
(and Sub-Saharan Afrika) is export- tion and a 2.7% population growth 2. The numbers in point No. 1
ing more oil than they retain, mis- rate, the following critical stats are weighed against 0.61, 1.52,
managing the retained oil, suffering
economic machines such as man- warrant consideration: 0.65, and 11.75. These are the
remaining after the exports
1. Nigeria is moving from 220
ufacturing sectors, leaving a weak MMb/y (million barrels per using a daily production of 2.4
economy, and a future depleted oil year) consumption with 187 MMb/d.
reserve. It is clear to see that chain million people in 2016 to 550 Mathematically speaking the num-
link leads to total economic collapse
if not immediately rectified. MMb/y consumption with in- bers in the first point practically
terpolated 463 million people in
match those in the second. How-
Our current position: Dr. Igbokoyi 2050 with a 3.28 bbl/d (barrels ever, it must be noted that these
found that as of 2013 Sub-Saha- per day) per 1000 people and numbers are with an already failing
ra Afrika produced 5.7 MMb/d 0% increase in bbl/d consump- economy with a non-existing man-
(million barrels per day), of which
tion.
5.2 MMb/d was exported, and 2. At the direst situation of con- ufacturing sector, and little to no
industrialization. Meaning:
1.0 MMb/d of oil products were sumption growing at 5.6% with 1. The projections presented by
imported. Sub-Sahara Afrika’s 2013 a 3.28 bbl/d per 1000 people, Dr. Igbokoyi are correct and
population was sitting at 943.04 mil- we expect an increase from the alarm needs to be sounded
lion people. That is 943.04 million
270 MMb/y in 2016 to 4290 across the Sub-Sahara, and

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