Page 84 - Msingi Afrika Magazine Issue 13

Innovate Afrika
Just like the human body, a

system is only as good as the
2. Nigeria has absolutely no
chance of an economy if we
keep exporting oil at this rate. health of it’s intrinsic opera-

Step One: drastically reduce oil tional protocols.
exportation.

Step Two: Power System Revitaliza- brought out in this paper: those above numbers are head-
tion. 1. Graphs depict the correlation ed the same way.
between the USD-to-Naira ex- 3. Annual gas consumption to
In 2020, I concluded a paper called: change rate and the Nigerian oil support the GDP growth rate
Re-Installing the Nigerian Energy revenue. Conclusion: the Naira of 8% will be for 2030, 2040,
Sector – Development + Sustain- was devalued harder with lower and 2050 respectively, 7.3, 15.4,
ability. From this paper, I published Nigerian oil revenue. Also… and 24.2 Tcf (trillion cubic feet)
an article in Msingi Afrika Magazine 2. …the Naira still depreciated under the model of 3.5 bcf
called: Energy in Afrika by Afrikans. during times of high Nigerian (billion cubic feet)/day export
oil revenue due to a decline in at 90% uptime.
It was quite an enlightening project. foreign investments into Nige- 4. At an annual GDP growth rate
The project revealed the following: ria. Hence… of 2% and 8%, Nigeria will be
1. Nigeria’s power generation 3. …strict diversification is nec- importing gas for cumulative
capacity is 12.522 GW (1 GW = essary due to the high crude oil consumption by 2045 and 2050
1,000 MW). dependency. However, diversi- respectively under the model
2. Instant losses are 56.67% of fication requires electricity to of 3.5 bcf/day export at 90%
capacity. support the emerging sectors uptime.
3. Power consumed is approxi- providing the economic growth.
mately 25%. As the author pointed out, “if
4. Nigerian statistical population at The end goal is economic growth, Nigeria was to add 6.0 GW gener-
this time: 200 million but this will come through energy ated power annually, we may attain
A comparison: USA generates links starting from reduction in oil a 2% GDP growth rate in the next
greater than 200 GW for over 320 exports. Now onto generation. 10 years.” However, desperate times
million people. That is 36x power call for desperate measures, and as
generated for just 1.6x the people. Using multiple regression on the the saying goes: shoot for the stars,
Chinese power generated per 1000 because if you miss, you will land
Definitely not calling USA the place people as a function of population on the moon. Nigeria is better off
to be, but we cannot fault electricity index and GDP per capita index, the shooting for an 8% GDP growth
infrastructure endeavor. necessities were as follows: rate, and landing on (4 – 6)% if we
In the paper, Dr. Igbokoyi pointed 1. By 2025 and 2030, for a 7% and miss. But the reward of hitting the
out that according to the United 10% annual GDP growth rate, 8% will be a significant step in the
Nations (UN) standard, an industri- Nigeria will respectively have to right direction.
alized nation generates 1.0 MW per generate 78.1 GW and 91.4 GW
1000 people. His research further for in 2025, and 114 GW and Step Two: revitalize and re-install
showed: 147.3 GW in 2030. the Nigerian power sector.
1. Afrika’s average is 0.03 MW per 2. By 2030, 2040, and 2050 with a
1000 people, and statistical population projection Step Three: Incorporate Energy Mix
2. Nigeria generates 0.023 MW per of 272, 355, and 463 million, and Positive Stewardship
1000 people. Nigeria will have to provide Dr. Igbokoyi and I both agree on a
Meaning, industrialization is but a respectively 124, 287, and 463 lot pertaining to this subject matter,
dream. GW of power for an 8% annual not the least of which is: Nigeria
GDP growth rate. An average is blessed with renewable energy
On examination of Nigerian oil ex- increase of 16.95 MW annual- sources.
port and the Naira value, from 2014 ly. Unfortunately, with a 2020
to 2016 the Naira was devalued by projection of 47 GW at just 2% Total installed solar power in China
300%. There were major points GDP growth rate unrealized, in 2015 came to 43.5 GW, that

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